Wednesday, April 12, 2006

It's been a bad week: the pictures of Tom Hurndall's in the Observor last week, and then the photos from Bayt Lahia. Those pictures touched my nerves in a very raw way and made me question the benefit of a detached analysis; the callousness of pretenting to understand the grand geo-political game, in which I am only an observor from afar. Pictures of senseless death are always difficult: you either shut yourself from them and carry on with your life, or you open yourself to the sorrow they bring. But then what?

My education has taught me to try to think of a bigger picture, to try to make sense, to suggest alternatives. This is what I do here. I'm not sure this has any use; I have no power over the situation.

* * *

What we see at present in the Gaza strip may only be the beginning. It is not long before militant factions will have longer-range rockets (katyushas) and then they will be able to launch them from any position they want. This, in turn, will mean that Israeli artillery fire will be used against heavily populated areas. A series of cease-fire agreements will be reached, and then always broken, both sides blaming each other.

This scenario should not surprise anyone; in a sense it was the desired effect of the Israeli withdrawl from the Gaza strip. As long as Israeli settlers and troops were there, means such as artillery and heavy bombing could not be used. Now they're out, Gaza is a fair game; the successful marketing of the pull-out means that international pressure on Israel is abated.
"We have full legitimization to apply considerable force when they continue to fire on our towns and villages. The Israeli public also understands this, as does the international arena. I don't see anyone in the world getting too upset about this," says a the Head of Operations in the Israeli Army to Haaretz today, in an especially obnoxious interview which demonstrates the narrow-mindedness of the Israeli Military.

Perhaps, in economic terms, it is cheaper to bomb the Palestinians from outside and sustain the rocket attacks; cheaper, that is, from keeping a direct occuption with Israeli troops. I don't know, and don't really care. What should be clear that further unilateral pull-out in the West Bank will create the same situation there.

This need not be. The Hamas government and the pragmatic majority in the Israeli parliament
provide a unique chance to reach an agreement on two-state solution that will be respected by solid majorities on both sides. Is it the last chance? I don't like to make such predictions. What I do know is that the destruction of Palestinian economy and administration will be a heavy blow for any such plans.

2 Comments:

At 10:01 AM, Blogger kevin beck said...

Nice blog.

Speaking as an outsider, both Governments seem to be at a crucial point. Perhaps they can both transcend themselves and find a way forward.

Best to you.

 
At 6:59 AM, Blogger Oleh Yahshan said...

It's a good point you make,
But When what I hear is Hammas Talking abuot how they will never recognize Israel's right to exist, and sit with Iran - who states it's just a matter of time till we destroy those Zionists, I fail to see much hope talking to these people.

I do agree though that Unilatiral withdrals are not the way to go. But I don't think we are coming from the same point there.

On a different note:
Interesting Blog you have here, and I fully agree with your Statement on comments - I hope That no matter how much we agree or disagree (I havn't concluded that one yet) - we can keep a conversation to Normal Civilized tones,
Moadim LeSimcha - Happy Passover.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home